A keplerian method to estimate perturbations in the restricted three-body problem

We develop a new and fast method to estimate perturbations by a planet on cometary orbits. This method allows us to identify accurately the cases of large perturbations in a set of fictitious orbits. Hence, it can be used in constructing perturbation samples for Monte Carlo simulations in order to maximize the amount of information. Furthermore, the estimated perturbations are found to yield a good approximation to the real perturbation sample. This is shown by a comparison of the perturbations obtained by the new estimator with the results of numerical integration of regularized equations of motion for the same orbits in the same dynamical model: the three-dimensional elliptic restricted three-body problem (Sun-Jupiter-comet).