冰上丝绸之路与北极油气资源

油气是重要的战略资源。其中天然气作为清洁能源,它曾经是,现在是,在可预期的未来——全球碳减排、中国碳达峰情景下,仍然是最重要的能源资源。能源进口渠道的多元化一直是中国缓解能源紧张的有效措施之一。北极地区油气资源丰富且以天然气为主,已发现的油气资源中绝大多数在俄罗斯,尤其是天然气。但是俄罗斯天然气生产的油气田80%以上已经进入北极圈。2012年,中俄合作开发北极亚马尔液化天然气项目正式启动,标志着中国参与北极油气资源开发利用取得重要进展,也事实上开启了中国主导的"丝绸之路经济带建设"和俄罗斯主导的"欧亚经济联盟建设"对接合作的进程。北极地区已发现的油气资源共计3289.4亿桶油当量,其中石油605.4亿桶（84.1亿吨）油当量,仅为全球已发现石油资源的2.5%;天然气41.4万亿立方米（约合2683亿桶,372.6亿吨油当量）,占全球已发现天然气资源的15.5%。北极地区已发现的油气总资源中绝大多数在俄罗斯,俄罗斯已发现的北极油气资源合计2905亿桶油当量（403.5亿吨）,占88.3%;其中天然气约39.47万亿立方米,约合2557.9亿桶（355.3亿吨）油当量,占北极地区已发现天然气总资源的95%以上。北极待发现的油气资源量也非常可观,约占世界待发现常规石油资源的15%;天然气占世界待发现常规天然气资源的30%,其分布也主要在俄罗斯。随着全球气候变暖和能源战略博弈,俄罗斯为确保其天然气出口及财政来源,必然要加大北极油气、特别是天然气的开采和开发,并通过北极航道运到中国和其他消费国。本文在概括分析北极油气资源分布特点、俄罗斯油气资源与北极战略及北方海航道通行能力的基础上,回顾了北极亚马尔液化天然气项目诞生、发展演变及其国际博弈的背景;概括介绍了中国成功介入北极油气资源项目这一标志性事件过程,并进一步提出了中国对北极油气资源利用战略举措的建议。 

Polar Silk Road and Arctic petroleum and gas resources

Petroleum and gas are important strategic resources, among which natural gas as a clean energy resource has always been and still will be the most important energy resource in the foreseeable future, even after cutting global carbon emissions and China peaking carbon emissions. Diversification of energy import channels has been one of the effective measures to alleviate the energy shortage in China. The Arctic region is rich in oil and gas resources and is dominated by natural gas. The vast majority of oil and gas resources found in the Arctic are in Russia, but now more than 80 percent of the Russian natural gas production is already in their oil and gas fields in north Arctic Circle. In 2012, China and Russia officially launched a joint project to develop liquefied natural gas, marking significant progress in China''s participation in the development and utilzation of Arctic oil and gas resources, and in fact started the cooperative process to integrate the China-led "Construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt"and the later Russia-led "Construction of Eurasian Economic Union".The total amount of oil and gas resources discovered in the Arctic region is 328.94 billion barrels of oil equivalent, of which oil equivalent amounts to 60.54 billion barrels (8.41 billion tons), only accounting for 2.5% of the world''s discovered oil resources; Natural gas amounts to 41.4 trillion cubic meters (268.3 billion barrels, 37.26 billion tons of oil equivalent), and accounts for 15.5 percent of the world''s discovered natural gas resources. The vast majority of oil and gas resources discovered in the Arctic region are in Russia, which has a total of 290.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (40.35 billion tons), accounting for 88.3%, of which natural gas amounts to about 39.47 trillion cubic meters, about 255.79 billion barrels (35.53 billion tons) of oil equivalent, constituting more than 95% of the total discovered natural gas resources in the Arctic. The Arctic also has considerable undiscovered oil and gas resources, accounting for about 15% of the world''s total undiscovered amount; The undiscovered natural gas, which mainly distributes in Russia, accounts for 30% of the world''s total undiscovered amount. In the context of global warming and crackdown by the US-led Western world, Russia is bound to increase extraction and development of Arctic oil and gas, especially natural gas, and transport them through the Arctic Shipping Lanes to China and other consumer countries, in order to secure its natural gas export revenue and fiscal revenue. This paper takes as the basis the summary of the distribution characteristics of oil and gas resources in the Arctic, oil and gas resources and the Arctic strategy of Russia, and the traffic capacity of the Northern Sea Route (NSR), and reviews the launch and development of the liquefied natural gas joint project as well as the international power politics environment. Moreover, this paper briefly introduces the process of China''s successful intervention in the Arctic oil and gas resources project, and puts forward the strategic measures for China to utilize Arctic oil and gas resources.