内蒙古马铃薯干旱风险区划

利用1979—2013年内蒙古73个旗县气象站资料、历史干旱资料、马铃薯产量数据和社会属性数据等，通过内蒙古中西部和东部地区全生育期的降水负距平百分率与相对气象产量二者建立的回归方程，结合农业干旱等级和降水距平百分率气象干旱等级国家标准，得到了马铃薯轻旱、中旱和重旱的等级指标，确定了干旱致灾因子的危险性，结合承灾体的脆弱性、孕灾环境的暴露性和地区的防灾减灾能力的评价指标体系，利用地理信息系统（GIS）的空间分析功能，对内蒙古马铃薯干旱风险进行评估与区划。研究结果表明:高风险区主要分布在鄂尔多斯市东北部、呼和浩特市南部和北部、乌兰察布市大部和锡林郭勒盟南部地区，所占面积比例为19.1%；中风险区主要分布在呼和浩特市部分地区、赤峰市中部和南部、通辽市西北部、兴安盟东北部、呼伦贝尔市北部地区，所占面积比例为20.1%；干旱较低风险区主要分布在赤峰市西部和北部、通辽市东南部、兴安盟西南部、呼伦贝尔市东南部地区，分布区域面积最大，所占比例为41.0%；低风险区主要分布在灌溉区域，包括河套灌区和辽河流域，所占面积比例为19.8%。

Drought Risk Regionalization of Potatoes in Inner Mongolia

Drought is a primary determinant agro-meteorological disaster which constrains the potato yield in Inner Mongolia. The classification of drought risk is particularly significant for disaster risk assessment and mitigation. Utilizing meteorological data of 73 stations from 1979 to 2013, historical drought disaster records with potato yield data and social attribute data, the extent of the potato drought disaster in Inner Mongolia is investigated.Results from the use of GIS spatial analysis and the fuzzy clustering method are pertained from the aspects of drought-causing factor risk indices, the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, the exposure of the disaster environment and the evaluation index system of disaster prevention and mitigation capacity in the region.Based on the regression model, thresholds for light drought, medium drought and heavy drought are derived from the regression model portrayed as linear between the percentage of negative anomalies of precipitation and the relative meteorological yield in the central western and eastern Inner Mongolia, combined with the agricultural drought grade and the precipitation anomaly percentage under the national criterion of meteorological and drought grade.It opens up opportunities to fully exploit the use of drought index as an indicator of the distribution of the drought risk, and thus it is of immense importance in monitoring the smooth decreasing tendency from west to east.High risk areas covering 19.1% are mainly distributed in northeastern Ordos, southern and northern Hohhot, most regions in Wulanchabu and Xilinhhot in the southern region. The middle risk zone is primarily distributed in some areas of Hohhot, the central and southern of Chifeng, the northwest of Tongliao, the northeast of Xing''an League, the northern of Hulunbeier, coveringing 20.1% of the total area. The lower risk areas cover 41% of the total area including the western and northern of Chifeng, the southeast of Tongliao, the southwest of Xing''an League, the southeastern of Hulunbeier, and so on.