| 广西早春旱预报的全部可能回归模型方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 古文保,覃丹宇.广西早春旱预报的全部可能回归模型方法[J].南京气象学院学报,2000,23(2):288-293. |
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| 作者姓名： | 古文保 覃丹宇 |
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| 作者单位： | 广西壮族自治区气象台,南宁,530022 |
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| 摘 要： | 研究了广西春旱天气的前期大气环流及要素场的异常特征发现，冬季５００ｈＰａ高度场，月平均降水、温度，冬季海温、极涡强度指数，亚欧续向环流等与广西早春旱关系密切。用建立的广西早基旱预报模型对１９９８年春季降水进行了试报。
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| 关 键 词： | 早春旱 大气环流异常 回归模型 降水预报 |
OPTIMUM REGRESSION PREDICTION MODEL TO SPRING DROUGHT IN GUANGXI |
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| Gu Wenbao,Qin Danyu.OPTIMUM REGRESSION PREDICTION MODEL TO SPRING DROUGHT IN GUANGXI[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2000,23(2):288-293. |
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| Authors: | Gu Wenbao Qin Danyu |
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| Abstract: | Investigated are the anomaly features of atmosphere circulation and meteorological elements prior to early spring drought in Guangxi.It is found that the drought is closely related with the geopotential height at 500 hPa,precipitation,temperature,SST,polor vortex intensity and Eurasian zonal circulation in the proceeding winter.A regression model is developed to predict the drought in 1998. |
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| Keywords: | early spring drought atmosphere circulation anomaly regression |
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