全球冰冻圈变化预测研究现状

冰冻圈是气候系统重要的圈层,对气候系统有强烈的反馈作用,在全球变暖的背景下,冰冻圈的变化和预测研究愈来愈受到科学界的重视。近年来,冰冻圈的预测研究已经取得重要进展,主要表现在:海冰、积雪冻土等子系统模式发展迅速,开展了不少模式比较计划,这些模式能重现大尺度的季节变化和年际变化特征,模拟能力较以前有了大幅度提高。但模式模拟的不确定性仍普遍存在,主要表现在:冰盖等子系统的模式对于其内部的热力过程、其底部与海洋的相互作用过程缺乏有效的观测手段,认识不够清楚,湖冰河冰模式主要还依赖统计相关模型。随着遥感技术以及资料同化技术的不断应用,各个子系统物理过程认识的不断深入,冰冻圈模式预测将日趋完善,逐渐缩小不确定性。

PROGRESS OF PREDICTION OF THE GLOBAL CRYOSPHERE CHANGE

The modeling simulation and modeling prediction of each component (sea ice,snow and frozen ground,ice sheet and shelves,glacier and ice cap,lake and river ice) of the Cryosphere is reviewed. Firstly,the ability of the modeling simulation to reproduce each component’s changes observed during the last decades is investigated. Secondly,the reliability of the modeling prediction to project over the 21st century is assessed. The conclusion is drawn: the seasonal and interannual variability of some components (eg. sea ice) observed on the large scale is successfully reproduced by current models,and the ability of simulation is greatly improved. On the other hand,the dynamical and thermal process of some components (eg. ice sheet) is not well represented in models,even some components' (eg. river ice) models are based on statistics. The development of models is not equivalent among the cryosphere components. The uncertainty of current simulation and prediction of global cryosphere by models always exist. All the uncertainty is mainly from the detail of physical process which is poorly understood. The physical process and observation research on cryosphere components is urgently needed.