中国原油进口风险度以及对国内不同区域的影响分析

1993年中国开始从原油输出国变为原油输入国,到2010年,中国的原油进口依赖度高达53%。原油进口来源国的社会经济稳定性、原油运输线路的安全性影响到中国原油进口的安全性。本文根据ITIRI的综合国际贸易投资风险指数和原油运输线路的安全性,设计了中国从其主要原油进口来源国进口原油的风险指数。然后分析了中国各省级行政区对原油进口消费的依赖度,中国六个大区石化工业和八个石油化工基地对进口原油的依赖程度。从而分析了它们对进口原油风险的敏感度。本研究的结论是:第一,中国重要的原油进口来源国比较集中,且集中在社会经济不十分稳定的国家。第二,原油进口风险对沿海地区经济的影响远高于对内陆地区的影响。第三,沪宁杭、琼粤闽和长江中游石化基地是受原油进口风险影响最大的三个基地。根据这些结论,本文提出两方面建议:第一,建议中国原油进口来源与运输方式尽量多元化,以规避风险。第二,中国原油战略储备基地应考虑对原油进口风险敏感度大的地区。

Analysis of Crude oil Import Risk and Its Impact to Different Regions in China

China has become a net crude oil import country since 1993. Its depen- dence on imported crude oil reached 53% in 2010. China＇s crude oil import safety has been affected by the social and economic stability of the export countries and the security of crude oil transportation routes. According to comprehensive index of international trade and investment risk of ITIRI and the security of crude oil transportation routes, this research designs a risk index for the main crude oil export countries to China and then analyzes the dependence on import crude oil of each province, autonomous region, municipality. This paper shows the sensitivity of the crude oil import risk of each petrochemical industry re- gion and petrochemical industrial base in China. The main conclusions are as follows. Firstly, China＇s crude oil is mainly imported from a few countries in Middle East whose society and economy are very unstable. Secondly, the import risk of crude oil affecting the economy of China＇s coast area is heavier than that to inland China. Thirdly, the import risk of crude oil is threating three of the petrochemical bases in Chin~ which are Shanghai-Nanking-Hangzhou Base, Hainan-Guangdong-Fujian Base and Base of Yangtze Middle Reach. Two suggestions come out after the conclusions. 1） to avoid import risks of crude oil, China should diversify its import countries of crude oil and the ways of crude oil transportation. 2） the crude oil strategic reserve base of China should be located in the areas where are more sensitive to crude oil import risk.