地下工程岩爆预测的综合集成方法

鉴于地下工程中岩爆预测的各种方法的局限性以及预报准确率低的现状，提出了地下工程岩爆综合集成预测的学术思路。这种学术思路将定性预测与定量预测相结合、单因素预测与多因素预测相结合，引入处理复杂性问题行之有效的非线性科学理论，对岩爆进行综合集成预测。详细介绍了岩爆预测的综合集成方法，包括：地质分析预测法、应力强度比法、层次分析—模糊评判法和神经网络法，并将其应用于雅砻江某水电站交通隧道岩爆预测中，取得了较好的效果。

Comprehensively Integrated Methods of Rockburst Prediction in Underground Engineering

In view of the low accuracy of rockburst prediction in underground engineering and the flaws of existing methods of prediction, an academic thought of comprehensively integrated prediction for rock burst is put forward in the paper. According to the thought, the rockburst prediction must combine the qualitative prediction with the quantitative forecast, the single factor prediction with the many factors forecast. Nonlinear scientific theory, which is effective in solution of complex problems, should be used to the comprehensively integrated prediction for rock burst. In this paper, the comprehensively integrated methods of rockburst prediction are recommended in detail, including comprehensive geologic analysis, stress strength ratio method, AHP FUZZY assessment and neural network method. These methods were used to forecast the rockburst of traffic tunnels in Jinping Ⅱ Hydropower Station on Yalong river in west China, obtaining a good results.