| 应用半参数AR模型的电离层TEC建模与预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李秀海,郭达志. 应用半参数AR模型的电离层TEC建模与预测[J]. 测绘科学, 2011, 36(2): 149-151 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李秀海 郭达志 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国矿业大学资源与安全学院;黑龙江工程学院测绘工程系; |
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| 基金项目： | 黑龙江工程学院重点基金项目(Z08003) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文基于时间序列分析的DDS(Dynamic Data System)建模法,对季节性的电离层总电子含量(TEC)时间序列观测值平稳化后建立自回归AR模型,提出以半参数AR模型对普通AR模型精化,并利用半参数AR模型对电离层TEC预报。实例分析表明:利用半参数AR模型对电离层TEC进行预报,在短期内半参数模型预报效果优于普通AR模型,但随着预报时间变长,则半参数模型预报精度明显下降,其预报效果则不如普通的AR模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 电离层 时间序列分析 总电子含量(TEC) AR模型 半参数AR模型 |
Prediction of ionospheric Total Electron Content based on semiparametric autoregressive model |
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| LI Xiu-hai,GUO Da-zhi. Prediction of ionospheric Total Electron Content based on semiparametric autoregressive model[J]. Science of Surveying and Mapping, 2011, 36(2): 149-151 |
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| Authors: | LI Xiu-hai GUO Da-zhi |
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| Affiliation: | ①(①School of Safety and Resource Engineering,China University of Mining & Technology,Beijing 100083,China;②Department of Surveying and Mapping,Heilongjiang Institute of Engineering and Technology,Harbin 150050,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on Dynamic Data System(DDS)modeling methodology,after transforming a seasonal time series for ionospheric Total Electron Content(TEC)into a stationary time series by seasonal differences and regular differences,stationary TEC values were modeled by the autoregressive(AR)model in the paper.In order to correct the systematic errors,the authors proposed that AR model could be refined by introducing semiparameters to AR model and the ionospheric TEC could be predicted using the semi-parametric AR model.Th... |
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| Keywords: | ionosphere time series analysis Total Electron Content(TEC) autoregressive(AR)model semiparametric AR model |
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