Effect of climate change and increased atmospheric CO2 on hydrological and nitrogen cycling in an intensive agricultural headwater catchment in western France

Climate change and increased atmospheric CO₂ concentration can impact hydrological and nitrogen cycling at the catchment scale. The objective of this study is to assess these impacts in an intensive agricultural headwater catchment in western France. A calibrated and validated agro-hydrological model was driven by output of the climate model ARPEGE under the A1B emission scenario over 30-year simulation periods. Our study indicated that with climate warming and increased atmospheric CO₂, the main trends in water balance were a decrease in annual actual evapotranspiration (AET), a decrease in annual discharge and wetland extent, and a decrease in spring and summer of groundwater recharge and soil-water content. Not considering the effects of increased atmospheric CO₂ in the agro-hydrological model led to overestimating discharge decrease and underestimating AET decrease and wetland extent. Climate change could influence N cycling by increasing soil N mineralisation, increasing soil denitrification in wetlands and upstream areas, and decreasing NO₃–N load to streams. Since wetlands appear to be sensitive to climate change, improving modelling to better predict their responses is an important issue, especially to help plan sustainable management of these vulnerable areas.