河北省高速公路路面温度变化特征及预报模型

利用2010年1月至2011年12月邯长、京秦高速公路涉县、玉田南北2监测站和所在气象站观测资料,统计分析南北2站路面温度与气温的日变化特征及路面最高温度与气象因子的关系,基于多元回归分析方法建立逐月路面温度预报方程,并进行精度检验。结果表明,路面温度的日变化不但与季节、天空状况有关,还与地理位置密切相关。路面最高温度受多种气象因子的影响,与前一日路面最高温度、最高气温、能见度呈显著正相关,与总云量、低云量、相对湿度呈显著负相关,其中与最高气温的相关性最显著;路面最低温度与最低气温呈显著线性相关。基于路面最高温度预报方程的检验精度,玉田站年平均为77.5%,涉县为79.2%,可为今后路面最高温度预报提供参考。

Variation Characteristics of Road Surface Temperature on Highway of Hebei Province and Its Prediction Model

Based on the hourly road surface temperature at Shexian and Yutian highway monitoring stations and the meteorological obser-vation data from Jannuary 2010 to December 2011,the diurnal variations of road surface temperature and air temperature in Shexian and Yutian were analyzed statistically,and the relationship between the maximum temperature of road surface and meteorological factors was studied.Then,the monthly prediction equations of the maximum road surface temperature were established by using the multiple regression analysis,and the accuracies of prediction were tested.Results showed that the diurnal variation of road surface temperature was not only correlated with season and sky conditions,but also closely related to geographic location.The maximum road surface tem-perature was influenced by a variety of meteorological factors.The maximum road surface temperature had a positive correlation with the maximum road surface temperature the day before,the maximum air temperature,visibility,while a negative correlation with total and low cloud cover,relative humidity,and the correlation was the most significant with the maximum air temperature.The minimum road surface temperature was significantly correlated with the minimum air temperature.The prediction accuracy of the annual maximum road surface temperature in Yutian was 77.5%,and that was 79.2% in Shexian.The equations could be used for future prediction of the maximum road surface temperature on highway.