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Some interrelations between the stages of development of tropical cyclones
Authors:M I Yaroshevich
Institution:(1) NPO Taifun, pr. Lenina 82, Obninsk, Kaluga oblast, 249038, Russia
Abstract:Energy interdependence between groups of tropical cyclones separated by time intervals of cyclonic “calm” is investigated. A linear negative interrelation between the total powers of such groups is revealed. The groups consist of real tropical cyclones that occurred within the active cyclonic zone in the northwestern Pacific. The corresponding regression relationships are obtained. Interrelation between the stages of development of seasonal cyclonic activity is revealed. Semidiurnal total powers (power elements) are chosen as “operational” objects with the use of which the sought-for interrelation is established. Regressions were obtained separately for each season: the number of elements and their powers are related by a negative power relation. The result obtained is supposed to serve as a certain basis for the probabilistic prediction of cyclonic activity during the season.
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