沂河流域水文特征变化及其驱动因素

以沂河流域为研究区，运用水文特征参数时间序列法，分析1951—2002年流域降水、径流、洪峰流量等水文要素的演化趋势，通过临沂站50年来天然径流过程的回归模拟及其与实测径流的比较，定量分析气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响。结果表明：近50年来沂河流域年径流量和各月径流量显著减少，并且对降水波动的响应迟缓，而单次暴雨径流对降水反应敏感；10年尺度的降水波动中，径流随着降水的多少而发生相对一致的变化趋势，降水变化在一定程度上控制着径流的演化；但是20世纪60年代中期以来，临沂站实测径流的平均值减少了149mm，占天然径流量年平均值的51．6％，气候变化和人类活动对径流减少的贡献率分别为39．3％和60．7％。水利工程建设、土地利用变化、水资源开发利用等人类活动对径流产生更为深刻的影响。流域可持续发展要求在遵循水循环自然规律的基础上合理约束人类活动。

Variations of the Hydrological Characteristics and Driving Factors in the Yihe River Basin

Taking the Yihe River basin as a study region,this paper analyzes the variations of hydrological characteristics such as precipitation,runoff and peak discharge,during the period 1951-2002.Time series analysis methods,such as the Kendall method and orderly cluster analysis are used to test the change trend and the mutation of precipitation-runoff.The influences of climate change and human activities on runoff were examined quantitatively based on the comparison between the observed runoff and regression si...