| 黄河源区径流对气候变化的响应及未来趋势预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李林,申红艳,戴升,肖建设,时兴合.黄河源区径流对气候变化的响应及未来趋势预测[J].地理学报,2011,66(9):1261-1269. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李林 申红艳 戴升 肖建设 时兴合 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 青海省气候中心,西宁810001;青海省防灾减灾实验室,西宁810001
2. 青海省防灾减灾实验室,西宁,810001 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局气候变化专项项目(CCSF2010-05);(CCSF2011-01)~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1956-2010年黄河源区流域水文、气象观测数据和2010-2030年区域气候模式系统PRECIS输出数据降尺度生成的未来气候情景资料,通过分析流量的演变规律和揭示气候归因,预测了未来流量可能的演变趋势。研究表明:近55年来黄河源区年平均流量总体呈减少趋势,并具有5a、8a、15a、22a和42a的准周期变化;南海夏季风减弱引起流域降水量的减少与全球变暖背景下蒸发量的增大和冻土的退化是导致黄河源区流量减少的气候归因;根据区域气候模式系统PRECIS预测结果,未来20年黄河源区流量变化趋势可能仍以减少为主。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 地表水资源 季风 冻土 气候模式 黄河源区 |
Response to Climate Change and Prediction of Runoff in the Source Region of Yellow River |
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| LI Lin,SHEN Hongyan,DAI Sheng,XIAO Jianshe,SHI Xinghe.Response to Climate Change and Prediction of Runoff in the Source Region of Yellow River[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(9):1261-1269. |
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| Authors: | LI Lin SHEN Hongyan DAI Sheng XIAO Jianshe SHI Xinghe |
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| Institution: | LI Lin1,2,SHEN Hongyan1,DAI Sheng1,XIAO Jianshe2,SHI Xinghe1,2(1.Qinghai Climate Centre,Xining 810001,China,2.Qinghai Key Laboratory of Disaster Preventing and Reducing,China) |
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| Abstract: | The hydrological and meteorological data of the source region of Yellow River from 1956 to 2010 and future climate scenarios from regional climate model(PRECIS) during 2010-2020 are used to analyze the flow variations and revealing the climate causes,and to predict the variation trend for future flows.Some conclusions can be drawn as follows.1) Annual mean flow shows a decreasing trend in recent 50 years in the source region of Yellow River,and there are periods of 5a,8a,15a,22a and 42a.2) The precipitation... |
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| Keywords: | climate change surface water resource monsoon frozen soil climate model the source region of Yellow River |
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