我国夏玉米潜在种植分布区的气候适宜性研究

根据我国188 个夏玉米农业气象观测站资料与1971-2000 年10 km×10 km空间分辨率的气候资料,结合国家层次和年尺度筛选出的影响我国玉米种植分布的潜在气候指标,利用最大熵(MaxEnt) 模型和ArcGIS空间分析技术,构建了我国夏玉米潜在种植分布与气候因子关系模型,研究了影响我国夏玉米潜在种植分布的主导气候因子及其气候适宜性。结果表明,影响我国夏玉米潜在种植分布的主导气候因子有：无霜期、年平均温度、≥ 10 oC积温持续天数、≥ 0 oC积温、≥ 10 oC积温、最冷月平均温度、最热月平均温度、年降水；采用夏玉米存在概率这一综合反映各主导因子作用的指标,将我国夏玉米潜在种植分布区划分为4 个等级：最适宜区、适宜区、次适宜区和不适宜区,并阐述了各气候适宜区的气候特征。研究结果可为夏玉米种植的科学布局及制定应对气候变化政策提供参考。

Climatic Suitability of Potential Summer Maize Planting Zones in China

Based on the data from 188 agricultural meteorological observation stations of summer maize and 10 km×10 km spatial resolution climate data in China from 1971 to 2000, the potential climate indices at national and annual scales influencing the distribution of maize planting zones from the references, together with the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model as well as ArcGIS spatial analysis technique, the relationship between potential summer maize planting zones and climate factors was established, and the potential summer maize planting distribution and its climatic suitability in China were analyzed in this paper. The results show that the key factors affecting summer maize planting distribution include frost-free period, mean annual temperature, ≥ 10 oC accumulated temperature continuous days, ≥ 0 oC accumulated temperature, ≥ 10 oC accumulated temperature, the coldest month average temperature, the warmest month average temperature and annual precipitation. The climatic suitability of potential summer maize planting zones in China could be divided into four levels: optimum area, suitable area, less suitable area and unsuitable area, based on its existence probability from MaxEnt model. Furthermore, the climatic characteristics of different climatic suitability zones of potential summer maize planting are discussed. This research would provide the reference for reasonable use of climatic resources, scientific planning of summer maize planting and policy making to cope with the climate change.