全球平均海温演变的奇异谱分析

用奇异谱分析（ＳＳＡ）研究了１３６年（１８５６－１９９１年）全球平均海温季距平演变特征，并对各主分量作了最大熵谱分析。结果表明，海温演变除了具有８１年周期外，还有一些非常明显的周期振动，这些周期主要是准１０年和２．６－６年。从各主分量的方差贡献来看，前１５个主分量的方差贡献之和是总方差的７８％。从特征向量的分布函数来看，第１、２特征向量表示了海温序列的线性特征，它们的方差之和可以占到总方差的４８％

The Singular Spectrum Analysis for Global SSTA

The global SSTA for past 136years(1856-1991)was studied with singular spectrum analysis,then a maximum entropy spectrum analysis for serveral principal components was conducted.The result shows that SSTA has serveral very evident periods of quasidecade and 2 6-6 years besides 81 years.The first fifteen principal components have a variance contribution of 78%.Eigenvector 1,2 stand for linear characteristic of SSAT,their variance contribution is 48%,and their resultant curve basically described average thenes during serveral years and serveral decades.Eigenvector 3 and afterwards eigenvectors stand for wave characteristics of SSTA.The first four principal components can better fit SSTA yearly change characters.