京津冀区域趋同的实证分析

根据区域趋同基本理论，采用新古典方法，运用Barro和Sala—I—Martin趋同模型分析京津冀区域经济增长情况，进行了α趋同和β趋同检验，研究结果表明，第三产业的发展差距以及北京、天津显著的综合区位优势是造成京津冀区域趋异的主要原因。

A Positive Analysis on Regional Convergence in Jing-Jin-Ji Region

The regional difference enlarges much in jing-jin-ji region since 1990. Based on the basic theory of regional convergence and the neo-classical method,the Barro and Sala-I-Martin economic growth model is applied in this paper,and some modification are done to it according to the condition of jing-jin-ji region.Besides the GDP per capita,structure variables such as industrialization,urbanization,openization,modernization and location condition are considered in the model to verify their influence on the regional growth.The result shows that,the regional economic growth in jing-jin-ji region does not show conditional convergence,but divergence for the regional economic growth is obvious in jing-jin-ji during this period.As for the whole situation,the rate of divergence was 3.3% from 1998 to 2003.Among these structure variables,development policies and geographical location have a great influence on the regional convergence,the improvement of location conditions will be able to accelerate huge accumulation of productive factors and promote regional development.So does the third industry level,that is to say modernization.On the one hand jing-jin-ji region should implement the harmony development strategy to control the enlarging tendency of regional economic diversities;on the other hand Hebei province should take pertinent measures to emphasize the third industry development and traffic condition,in order to promote effectively the cooperative developments of regional economy according to the changed patterns of regional economy.