基于时间序列法的高速公路沉降预测

公路的不均匀沉降会对车辆运行带来极大的安全隐患,高速公路沉降观测和预测是保障高速公路安全运营的必要手段.本文将时间序列法用于高速公路沉降预测,分析时间序列法的建模步骤、参数估计和适应性分析原理.通过程序计算得到预测结果和精度,与传统的双曲线法比较发现,时间序列法具有更高的预测精度和更好的工程实用性.

The Settlement Prediction of Highway by time-series Method

The uneven settlement of highway can bring great security risk for vehicle operation. Settlement observation and prediction of highway is necessary means to protect the security operations of highway. This paper adopts time-series method for settlement prediction of highway and analyses the theory of modeling steps, parameter estimation and adaptability of time series model. We can obtain prediction results and its accuracy by programm calculation. Compared with the traditional method--hyperbola method, we find that time serial method has higher prediction accuracy and better engineering practicability.