唐山7.8级地震前后前兆手段的灰关联度时序分析

本文使用灰关联度分析方法,以地下水动态数据为参考数列,以地电阻率和水氡数据为比较数列,计算了唐山7.8级地震前后(1973—1978年)的各前兆手段的灰关联度矩阵,进而得到灰关联度时序矩阵,从中研究灰关联度随时间变化的过程,并探讨该过程与震源应力场变化的关系。本文的方法可用来对各种前兆手段进行综合分析,并提出灰关联度普遍达到0.8以上时可供预报地震参考。

THE GCD TEMPORAL SEQUENCE ANALYSIS OFPRECURSORY APPROACHES BEFORE AND AFTER THE1976 TANGSHAN M7.8 EARTHQUAKE

In this paper, taking the dynamic ground-water data as the reference data-columns and the geoelectric resistivity and radon data as the comparison data-columns the Grey Correlation Degree (GCD in short) analysing method has been used to calculate the GCD matrixes of various precursory approaches before and after the Tangshan M7.8 earthquake (1973-1978) and then to calculate the GCD temporal matrixes, from which the process of GCD varying with time and the relation of such a process varying with source stress field have been studied. The presented method might be used to conduct a comprehensive analysis of various precursory approaches. And moreover, it might be taken as the reference to earthquake prediction when all the GCD values of various precursory approaches generally reach 0.8.