1991年7月云南施甸5.0,5.2级地震的预报与对策

1991年7月1日、22日在云南省施甸太平乡先后发生了5.0、5.2级两次中强地震。保山行署地震局曾在震前作出了正确的中、短期预报和震后作了无震预报。本文客观地提供了这次地震前后预报的科学依据、中短期自适应加权定量综合判定模式实际计算结果及一系列对策的实况;同时讨论了孕震区内短临阶段前兆变化的异常特征。

THE PREDICTION AND COUNTERMEASURE OF THE JULY 1991 SHIDIAN, YUNNAN, EARTHQUAKES (M = 5.0 and 5.2)

On July 1 and 22, 1991, two, moderate earthquakes (M = 5.0 and 5.2) occurred at Taiping Township, Shidian, Yunnan. Seismological Bureau of Baoshan Prefecture had made a successful short and intermediate-term prediction before the event, and a non-event prediction afterward. In this paper, the scientific bases for predictions prior and post, actual calculated results from the short and intermediate-term synthetic evaluation model of quantitative self-adaptability, and a series of countermeasures are introduced. At the same time, the characteristic anomalous variations of short and intermediate-term precursors in the seismogenic area are discussed.