太阳能光伏发电预报方法的应用效果检验与评价

基于湖北省气象新能源研究中心光伏电站一年完整的发电数据与同期气象资料,对辐射和发电功率短期预报方法进行检验分析,结果表明:(1)太阳辐射度预报与实况有很好的对应关系,相关系数在0.77以上,均通过a=0.001的显著性水平检验。(2)光伏发电功率预报的短期方法中,以模式辐照度订正值代入光电转换模型的方法最优,预报第一天的相对均方根误差为0.16。(3)太阳辐射预报及光伏发电功率预报随太阳高度角变化而呈一定的规律性,冬季中午误差最大,夏季晚上误差最小;阴雨天气误差明显高于晴天。如何降低阴雨天气预报时的误差将是下一步工作中需要研究的重点。

Verification and Evaluation of Forecast Method of PV Power Generation

Based on the power generation data provided by the PV power station of Hubei Meteorological Energy Development Centre and the meteorological data of the corresponding period, we carried out verification and evaluation on the radiation and generating power short term forecast method and found that: (1) Good correlation exists between the solar irradiance forecasts and the actual situation, with correlation coefficient going above 0.77, passing the 0.001 significance test. (2) The optimal method of short term forecasting methods is putting mode irradiance into photoelectric conversion model, and the relative root mean square error for the first day is 0.16. (3) Solar radiation forecasts and PV power generation forecast with solar elevation angle change present certain regularity. The maximum error is found at winter noons and the minimum is over summer nights. The error is significantly higher in rainy days than in sunny days. How to reduce the error in the rainy weather forecast is the study focus in the next step work.