日本列岛及中国东南沿海地震对中国大陆地震活动的影响估计

１９９４－１９９５年初日本列岛及中国东南沿海发生一组大地震，其中包括引起重大破坏的阪神大地震。从地震横向迁移角度对这些大地震集中发生对大陆地震的影响进行了分析。大震引起的应变波动传播速度馒、周期长、能量大、影响距离和深度大，其波峰可能触发地震。据Ｂｏｔｔ和Ｄｅａｎ的非弹性介质应变波运动方程解释了从海沟到内陆的大震迁移，指出１９１８年以来迁移序列目前对山西地震带及贺兰山地震带有影响；１９９４－１９９５年的地震序列在２０２０年左右将对渤海──郯庐断裂产生影响，２０３０年左右对华北平原产生影响；目前可能激发广东、福建沿海发生中等地震。

STUDY ON THE EFFECTS OF CONTNENTAL SEISMICITY ON EARTHQUAKE BURSTED IN JAPAN ARCHIPELAGO AND SOUTHEAST CHINA COASTAL AREA

A group of strong earthquakes occured from 1994 to early 1995 in Japan Archipelago and Southeast China Coastal Area including the devasting Kobe Earthquake. How will these earthquakes affect contcnental seismicity? In thip peper, analysis is proceeded from transverse migration.Strain wave caused by strong earthquake has propagation velocity slowly. period long.energy big.effect distance far and effect depth deep. And its wave peak may trigger earthquake.Nonelastic medium strain wave propagation equation by Bott and Dean can interprete migration from trench to continent. The authors point out that migration series since 1918 is affecting Shanxi seismic zone and the Helanshan seismic zone at present,and the earthquake series from 1994 to 1995 will affect the Bohai-Tanlu fault around 2020 and North China plain around 2030. At present, it may trigger middle stong earthquake in Guandong and Fujian coast.