Evolution of natural risk: analysing changing landslide hazard in Wellington,Aotearoa/New Zealand |
| |
Authors: | Gabi Hufschmidt Michael J Crozier |
| |
Institution: | (1) School of Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, P.O. Box 600, Wellington, New Zealand |
| |
Abstract: | This paper addresses the temporal variation of rainfall-triggered landslide hazard within the broader context of natural risk
evolution. Analysis of a sequence of aerial photos covering a period of 60 years allowed the establishment of a record of
landsliding for a site in the Wellington region, New Zealand. The data show one very dominant peak in the magnitude of landslide
occurrence in the late 1970s, followed by a continuous decrease. Landslide hazard can be expressed by the frequency and magnitude
of the landslide events, with the total surface area affected used as a surrogate for magnitude. However, the distinct decline
of landslide magnitude through time from the 1980s onwards indicates that landslide hazard may change with time. This possibility
is further explored by correlating potential landslide triggering storms with the magnitude of the landslide event, using
the ‘Antecedent Soil Water Status’ model in combination with daily rainfall. The relation between magnitudes of rainfall and
magnitudes of landslide events is found to be weak, suggesting that a given ‘Critical Water Content’ (antecedent soil water
status and rainfall on the day) does not produce similar magnitudes of landsliding. Furthermore, the study shows that reactivation
of previous landslides before the peak landslide occurrence of the late 1970s is low, while the situation is reversed after
this peak and reactivation in the subsequent years plays a larger role. It is concluded that the pattern of landsliding cannot
be explained by the pattern of rainfall and other factors are controlling the variation of landslide hazard in time. A possible
explanation is a change of the geomorphological system with time, instigated by a massive period of landsliding (the late
1970s peak). Subsequent sediment exhaustion of source areas resulting from this period appears to alter the system’s subsequent
reaction to an external trigger such as rainfall. The study demonstrates that landslide hazard analysis in general should
not rely on the integral of the frequency–magnitude relationship only, but should include potential non-linear changes of
system settings to increase the understanding of future system behaviour, and therefore hazard and risk.
|
| |
Keywords: | Antecedent soil water status Reactivation Landslide Hazard variability Risk variability Non-linearity New Zealand |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|