天津市生产性服务业与制造业协同发展研究

选取2004—2015年天津市生产性服务业和制造业时间序列数据,使用协整分析对二者协同发展关系进行分析,并进一步运用灰色关联分析模型对二者部门间产业关联进行了研究。结果表明:二者之间虽然存在长期均衡和协同发展关系,但也呈现出非均衡性特点,表现为制造业对生产性服务业的带动作用大于生产性服务业对制造业的支撑作用;应通过促进天津市生产性服务业与制造业融合,提升天津市技术服务类等现代生产性服务业的水平,并强化产业间关联,以实现生产性服务业和制造业协同均衡发展。

Research on the Coordinated Development of Producer Service Industry and Manufacturing Industry in Tianjin City

Selected the time series’ data of production services and manufacturing in Tianjin City from 2004 to 2015 , using co-integration analysis to demonstrate joint development between producer services and manufactur-ing with the gray correlation analysis model, the paper has analyzed the relationship between the two sectors of the industry. The results show that although exhibit long-term equilibrium and the coordinated development of relations between them, the characteristics of non-equilibrium, the leading role of manufacturing sector on producer services was greater than the producer services on manufacturing. Finally, through promoting the production of Tianjin City producer service industry and manufacturing integration, enhancing the level of modern producer services, and pro-moting the development of producer services cluster, it will be achieved coordinated development of production service and manufacturing industry.