中国冷冬的气候研究

2008年1月中国发生了低温、雨雪、冰冻天气，对南方的交通、通讯和输电等造成了严重的影响，也极大地提高了人们研究冷冬的兴趣。气候资料表明，这个冬季的温度负距平可能接近或小于冷冬的标准（-1.5℃），远低于寒冬的标准（-2.5℃）。但是，这是1977年以来最冷的冬季。近千年的资料表明，寒冬之后，夏季在中国出现东部多雨或北方多雨的概率会超过气候值。温度分布的EOF分析表明，2008年1月的温度变化可能是年际变化的反映，因此，未来短时间内再次出现这种类型冷冬的可能性不大。

Climatological Aspects of Severe Winters in China

China suffered from severe climate in January 2008 when low temperature, glaze and heavy snowfall significantly struck the transportation, communication and electricity transmission in the south of the country. It stimulates great interest in studying the severe winters. Climatic data show that negative temperature anomaly of this winter probably was moderate, near or less than the threshold of cold (-1.5℃) and much less than that of severe (-2.5℃) winters. However, this has been the coldest one since 1977. The frequencies of type-1a (Rainbelt lies in the eastern China) and type-4 (Rainbelt lies in the north of China) rain patterns in summer, following a severe winter, were greater than their normals, as indicated by the chronology of the last millennium. EOF analysis suggests that the changes in temperature in January of 2008 appeared as a part of interannual variability, which means that probability of occurrence of similar winter pattern in the near future is low.