新疆主要地震区pp回归综合预报模型研究

应用基于ｐｐ回归理论的数值型地震综合预报软件系统，选择了ｂ值、Ｃｂ值、Ａｂ值等１５个测震学参量，建立了它们与响应变量（未来任意时段内最大地震震级）的ｐｐ回归模型．对新疆４个主要地震区分别给出了各区的建模岭函数及综合预报模型．回顾检验及实际预报结果均表明该模型的预报效果是较为理想的．

STUDY ON THE SEISMOMETRY COMPREHENSIVE FORECASTING MODEL ESTABLISHED BY USING SEISMOMETRY INDICES AND PROJECTION PURSUIT REGRESSION METHOD OF MAIN SEISMIC REGIONS IN XINJIANG

Based on the projection pursuit regression (PPR) principle,the PPR model has been set up with 15 independent variables such as b value,C b value,A b value etc.,which are selected from seismometry parameters and one dependent variable representing maximum magnitude of earthquake that would occur in coming several months.By using the model,maximum magnitude of coming earthquake and probability of earthquake to occur in the future can be predicted.The PPR model of four mainly seismic regions in Xinjiang and their ridge functions are showed.The prediction effects of reservation test and practical test are satisfactory.