基于CRU资料的山西百年气温时空演变特征

全球变暖的背景下,百年尺度上的区域气温变化规律,近年来已成为气候变化研究的热点。本文基于1901-2016年英国东英吉利(East Anglia)大学气候研究中心(Climatic Research Unit,CRU)提供的高分辨率、逐月气温数据集,采用一元线性回归法、滑动平均法和Mann-Kendall突变检验法分析了116年来山西气温的时空分布特征。结果表明:百年来山西年平均气温和各季节气温均呈波动上升趋势,年均和各季节气温倾向率分别为0.13℃·(10a)^-1(年平均)、0.16℃·(10a)^-1(春季)、0.05℃·(10a)^-1(夏季)、0.09℃·(10a)^-1(秋季)、0.22℃·(10a)^-1(冬季),其中冬季气温增幅最大,对年均温增长的贡献最大,贡献率为42.31%,夏季气温增幅最小,贡献率也最小(9.62%)。研究时段内,山西各季节气温均发生突变,春季季均温突变开始于1993年,夏季在1917年和1996年都发生了气温突变,秋季、冬季出现突变的年份分别为20...

Spatial-Temporal Variation of Air Temperature based on CRU Data in Shanxi from 1901 to 2016

Under the background of global warming,the pattern of air temperature change on centennial-scale has become a hot issue of climate change in past several years. Based on monthly dataset with high resolution from University of East Angela Climatic Research Unit during 1901–2016,this paper is concerned with the spatial-temporal variation of air temperature in Shanxi Province. The methods of Univariate linear regression,moving average and Mann-Kendall mutation test are employed to investigate the variability of temperature,which aims to reveal the change regularity of air temperature and provide theoretical references for local government making related policies. The main results of study are as follows:Both the annual and seasonal mean temperature exhibit a fluctuant increasing trend in the recent 100 years. In particular,the increasing trends are found to be0. 16 ℃·(10 a)-1,0. 05 ℃·(10 a)-1,0. 09 ℃·(10 a)-1 and 0. 22 ℃·(10 a)-1 in spring,summer,autumn and winter,respectively,with largest(smallest)increases in winter(summer). And the annual increasing tendency is0. 13 ℃·(10 a)-1. Winter play a dominant role(contribution rate is 42. 31%)of warming temperature,and the contribution of summer was the least among the four seasons(contribution rate is 9. 62%). The mutations of temperature are detected in four seasons over Shanxi during the study period. The mutation point of spring is found in 1993,while two mutations are detected in 1917 and 1996 in summer,with 2001 and 1984 being the mutation years in autumn and winter,respectively. From the perspective of space,topography is complex in Shanxi Province,which may affect the distribution of annual and seasonal air temperature with different latitudes,while the influences are the lightest in the coldest months,and form the low(high)center of air temperature.