2006年6-8月T213与ECMWF模式中期预报性能检验

6—8月是我国高温干旱、暴雨洪涝等气象灾害最为严重的季节。该季节天气系统变化快，活动剧烈，天气预报难度大，最能考验数值预报模式的预报性能。为更好地应用T213模式中期预报产品，对2006年6—8月T213模式中期96小时数值预报产品进行了统计和天气学检验，并与ECMWF模式同类产品进行了对比分析。结果表明，T213和ECMWF模式对中高纬度大型环流的调整、副高及850hPa温度等均有较好的预报能力，对台风路径也都有一定的预报能力，但T213模式台风移速预报过快，登陆偏早，而ECMWF模式预报相反。

Verification of the Medium-range Forecast Efficiency of T213 and ECMWF Model from June to August 2006

In China, summer is the most difficult season for weather forecasting because the weather systems changes quickly and strongly so that most serious meteorological hazards such as drought, torrential and flood occur in this season. In order to improve the ability to use the products of T213, some synoptic verification about its 96-hour medium-term numerical forecasting in 2006 summer is made in comparison with the NWP of ECMWF model. The results indicate that both models have good performances for large-scale circulation of the high and middle latitude, temperature of 850hPa and the Pacific subtropical high. They can also forecast the movement of tropical cyclone successfully except more fast than observation. But the movement velocity of tropical cyclone center forecasted by T213 model is faster and its landing is earlier than observation, while the prediction results of ECMWF model is reverse.