县域耕地保有量目标约束机制及预测研究——以广西灌阳县为例

区域差异性导致各地耕地保护的目标不同,县域耕地保有量预测目标是否合理关系到区域和全局的耕地保护压力程度,影响着耕地保有量的合理预测,对有效遏止圈地现象至关重要。在耕地外部性特征基础上提出耕地保有量外部性连环效应,并据此效应建立县域耕地保有量预测目标约束机制;通过分析灌阳县在上轮规划耕地保护情况和耕地保有量现状,将灌阳县耕地保有量预测目标定位为耕地均量动态平衡;预测规划目标年灌阳县耕地保有量目标及相关单项指标。

Study on Target Constrained Mechanism and Prediction of Amount of Cultivated Land Reserved in County Areas: A Case Study of Guanyang County

In order to curb land enclosure during the period of this round of overall land use planning and provide scientific evidence for the prediction of the amount of cultivated land reserved in county areas,this paper puts forward three constrained targets for the cultivated land amount prediction in different county areas in consideration of external successive effects as theoretical basis,land pressure index as judgment method and current status difference as judgment basis.The three targets are hyper balance of the total cultivated land amount,dynamic balance of the total amount and the amount per capita.This paper predicts the amount of cultivated land reserved in next round of overall land use planning in Guanyang County under the condition of no decreasing of the cultivated land per capita,and the result arrives at the aim requirement.However,it shows that the cultivated land protection status is getting worse.In addition,three major issues to be studied are presented here,timeliness and operability of the constrained mechanism of the cultivated land use target,pressure slowness of cultivated land protection resulting from the actual cultivated land per capita towards the theoretical base line under the situation of foreseeable population increase,quantification analysis of the relationship between the amount of cultivated land reserved and the improvement of cultivated land quality and yield capability.