青海柴达木盆地巴音河上游径流量对气候变化和人类活动的响应

基于1959-2013年径流量及气象数据，运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、R/S分析、累积量斜率变化率等方法，分析了青海柴达木盆地巴音河上游径流的年际变化、年内分配、变化趋势及其周期性，定量评估了降水变化和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率。结果表明：巴音河上游径流量以0.2×10⁸ m³·（10a）^-1倾向率呈显著上升趋势，Hurst指数为0.78，存在20 a左右的丰平枯变化周期，21世纪流域进入丰水期；径流量变化以21～22 a的年代际变化周期最为显著，同时存在10～11 a的年际变化主周期；径流量年内分配不均匀，集中于夏秋两季，径流量呈现先增后减的单波峰分布特点，进入21世纪，年内最大月径流量呈现向后推迟的趋势，年内分配趋于集中；径流突变发生在2001年，降水对巴音河上游径流量增加的贡献率为83.06%，人类活动的贡献率为16.94%。因此，气候是影响巴音河上游河流径流变化的主要因素，人类活动的影响次之。研究结果对巴音河流域未来水资源开发利用和生态环境保护有一定的指导和借鉴意义。

Response of runoff to climate change and human activity in the upper reaches of the Bayin River,Qaidam Basin,Qinghai Province

Based on the measured monthly runoff and meteorological data in the upper reaches of the Bayin River basin during the period of 1959-2013, by using the methods of Mann-Kendall trend test, R/S analysis and the change rate of accumulation slope, monthly and annual variations of runoff, various trends and cycles were analyzed, the contribution rates of climate change and human activity on the run off were calculated. The results show that annual runoff had showed a significant increase trend from 1959 to 2013, with an increasing rate of 0.2×10⁸ m³·(10a)^-1 and a Hurst index of 0.78, the period of wet/normal/dry year was about 20 years, the river had experienced its high water period since the beginning of 21st century; the major periods of decadal runoff variation was 21-22 years, and the primary period of annual runoff variation was 10-11 years. Asymmetrical distribution feature of runoff within the year had displayed so that the runoff from June to November had accounted for 64.49% of the total, showing a single peak distribution, first increasing and then decreasing, the maximum monthly runoff had postponed since the beginning of the 21st century, with the annual distribution more concentrated; an abrupt change of runoff occurred in 2001; in the upstream of the Bayin River, climate change played dominant role, following by human activity, with the contribution ratio to runoff of 83.06% and 16.94%, respectively. This study could be useful for future water resource development and utilization and ecological environment protection in the Bayin River basin.