核设施一维土层地震反应分析中的参数不确定性

本文概述了一维土层地震反应分析等效线性化方法评价结果不确定性研究的进展,比较了中美两国核设施土层地震反应分析中参数不确定性的处理方法。基于实测数据,令参数随机变化,建立土层剖面模型,采用随机振动理论方法,分析了土层动力特性、剪切波速、基岩地震动输入界面对评价结果的影响。结果表明,土层剪切波速的不确定性对评价结果影响最大,主要表现为加速度反应谱平台段的延长。对比参数随机变化模型和最佳估计模型的计算结果可知,随机振动理论反映了土层对基岩地震动的影响,将随机模型分析结果的中值加减1倍标准差基本可以包络最佳估计模型的分析结果。

Uncertainty in One Dimensional Site Response Analysis for Nuclear Facilities

After reviewing the recent research development of uncertainty in one dimensional site response analysis for nuclear facility, we compared the procedures to deal with uncertainty of input parameters by China and United States. We generated soil profile models by randomizing measured data, and analyzed site response per random vibration theory. The calculated results show that the most dominate parameter is the velocity of shear wave which extended the peak range of acceleration response spectra. Comparison between results of random models with the best estimated model demonstrates that random vibration theory could introduce the effect of soil on ground motion. The median plus one standard deviation and median minus one standard deviation response spectrum can approximately envelope the best estimated one.