| 可操作的地震预测(OEF)国际研究动态综述 |
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| 引用本文： | 毕金孟,蒋长胜. 可操作的地震预测(OEF)国际研究动态综述[J]. 中国地震, 2017, 33(1): 1-13 |
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| 作者姓名： | 毕金孟 蒋长胜 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局地球物理研究所, 北京市民族大学南路5号 100081,中国地震局地球物理研究所, 北京市民族大学南路5号 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院国际合作局对外合作重点项目“‘一带一路’自然灾害风险与综合减灾国际研究计划”、中国地震局“监测预报改革设计研究——地震预测预报20年发展设计”专项联合资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 对目前国际上正持续开展的"可操作的地震预测"的研究动态,从主要关注的领域、"概率增益"概念的引入、混合模型研发及其在地震减灾中的应用等方面进行了重点介绍。由于OEF是在全球"地震可预测性合作研究"计划基础上逐步发展起来,具有重要的地震预测模型研发的技术基础以及解决地震减灾决策实际问题的实践基础,因此,相关研究动态和技术思路对我国的地震预测预报工作具有重要的启发和借鉴意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 可操作的地震预测 概率增益 混合模型 应急疏散 抗震设防 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-10-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016-12-17 |
A review on the international research of the Operational Earthquake Forecasting(OEF) |
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| Bi Jinmeng and Jiang Changsheng. A review on the international research of the Operational Earthquake Forecasting(OEF)[J]. Earthquake Research in China, 2017, 33(1): 1-13 |
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| Authors: | Bi Jinmeng and Jiang Changsheng |
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| Affiliation: | Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China and Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,the research progress of the Operational Earthquake Forecasting(OEF) is introduced from the major areas of probability gain,hybrid model development,and application in earthquake disaster reduction. Because the OEF is developed on the basis of the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability(CSEP) project,it has very important technical foundation for earthquake forecast modeling and the practical foundation for solving the actual problems in earthquake preparedness and disaster mitigation. The related research and its technical connotation have important inspirational and referential significance for earthquake forecasting/prediction. |
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| Keywords: | Operational earthquake forecasting Probability gain Hybrid model Emergency evacuation Seismic fortification |
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