北京密云县泥石流沟危险性的云模型评价

为了解决泥石流危险性评价过程中定性与定量相互转换的问题, 本文基于云模型理论建立了泥石流危险性评价的模型。首先根据泥石危险性的10个评价因子等级的分类标准获得各因子每个等级的数字特征, 将实测泥石流沟各项指标的数据利用正向云发生器进行整合计算, 得出各沟在各危险级别所对应的确定度。将评价因子的权重代入, 计算出泥石流沟在对应各个等级的综合确定度, 因此来确定泥石流沟的危险性等级。本文通过实测北京市密云县4条泥石流沟的实测值进行了云模型的危险性评价, 将云模型评价结果与可拓学评价结果进行了对比分析, 发现两者的评价结果基本一致, 认为云模型对泥石流危险性评价结果能够较准确地反映出泥石流的危险性水平, 其评价结果具有一定的合理性和可靠性。

DEBRIS FLOW RISK ASSESSMENT BASED ON CLOUD IN MIYUN BEIJING

In order to solve exchange of qualitative and quantitative in the process of debris flow risk assessment, this paper establishes a model of debris flow risk assessment based on Cloud Model theory. First, we obtain the numerical characteristics of ten classified factors according to the classification standard method. Then we use the forward cloud generator to evaluate the measured data and calculate the certainty degrees of each gully belonging to the four grades. Second, combining the evaluation factor weights, we calculate the maximum comprehensive certainty degree of each gully. According to the four debris flow gully measured data in Miyun county of Beijing, this paper evaluates their risk assessment with Cloud Model. Compare the Cloud Model results with extension evaluation results, we find that the results are mostly the same. Therefore, we can make conclusion that the cloud model method is reasonable and accurate, which can evaluate the degrees of debris flow risk.