应用最大熵原理分析水利工程经济效益的风险

采用层次分析方法,将水利工程经济效益系统分为防洪、发电、灌溉效益子系统,辩识出风险因子,建立了基于最大熵原理(准则)的经济效益风险分析模型,并给出求解方法。对总系统经济效益风险分析采用了两种方法:一是直接对辩识出的风险因子进行概率分析,得出总效益指标的最大熵密度函数;二是按照"风险树"的思路,分析子系统效益的风险特性,再进行风险组合,从而考察总效益的风险性。用实例验证了该模型的可行性和实用性。

Application of the maximum entropy principle to risk analysis of economic benefits for water projects

Adopting the method of arrangement analysis,this paper divides the general economic benefit system of water conservancy project into flood-control,power-generation and irrigation benefits subsystems,identifying their respective risk factors,establishing a risk analysis model of economic benefit based on the maximum entropy principle,and presenting the solving method.The paper analyzes the risk of general economic benefits in two ways : one way is to obtain the maximum entropy density function of the total benefit indices through a direct probability analysis of the identified factors of the system; the other way is to analyze the probability characteristic of subsystem benefit in advance,then combines the risks to examine the probability nature of the general system according to the idea of "risk tree".Finally,a practical example is provided to testify the feasibility and practicality of the model.