油气资源预测统计模型及其应用

松辽盆地北部的油气勘探程度虽然较高,但仍然有一些尚未发现的油气资源。本文在对预测油气资源的分形分布模型和截断帕雷托(TSP)分布模型两种统计模型进行系统研究的基础上,结合油气藏地质规律,通过预测该区未发现的油(气)田数量及其储量规模分布,认为方法可行,结果供参考,并待实践进一步验证。得出主要结论是:分形分布模型是一种预测油气田数量和储量(资源量)的可靠方法,在勘探程度较高的盆地或区带应用效果较好,而在勘探新区应用则有一定难度;截断帕雷托分布模型相对于分形分布模型不很完善,但应用该模型进行油气资源分布预测受具体盆地地质条件的影响较小,具有应用价值。

STATISTICAL MODELS TO PREDICT OIL AND GAS RESOURCES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS

Although the exploration level of oil and gas resources in the northern Songliao Basin was relative high, there were much undiscovered oil and gas resources. On the basis of systematic study using two statistics models of the fractal distribution model and the TSP distribution model predicting oil and gas resources. According to reservoir geology law, the authors predicted the number of the undiscovered oil (gas) fields and the scale distribution in the fields. Both of the methods could be applied, and the results could be as a reference to be validated by the practice. Our experience showed that the fractal distribution model was a reliability one predicting the number of oil and gas fields and their reserves (resource extent), with a good application result in the highly explored basins and zones, but there might be some difficulties in newly exploring areas. The TSP distribution model was not very perfect, compared with the fractal distribution model; applying this model to predict distribution of oil and gas resources was less affected by the basin's geological conditions, so as to be worth popularizing.