| 诱发因素影响下的滑坡参数优化预测模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 叶润青, 付小林, 郭飞, 等. 2023. 三峡库区地质灾害监测分析与发展探讨[J]. 工程地质学报, 31(5): 1628-1636. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0190. |
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| 作者姓名： | 叶润青 付小林 郭飞 易庆林 汤明高 宋英旭 吴润泽 |
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| 作者单位： | ①.中国地质调查局武汉地质调查中心(中南地质科技创新中心)，武汉 430205，中国;②.三峡库区地质灾害教育部重点实验室(三峡大学)，宜昌 443002，中国;③.地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室(成都理工大学)，成都 610059，中国;④.江西省放射性地学大数据技术工程实验室(东华理工大学)，南昌 330013，中国 |
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| 基金项目： | 三峡后续工作地质灾害防治项目(资助号：0001212020CC60002，0001212018CC6000010，0001212012AC50021)，宜昌市自然科学研究项目(资助号：A21-3-006) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文结合三峡库区地质灾害监测预警建设历程、地质灾害监测分析现状及面临的问题，从地质灾害监测分析概念和内涵、发展趋势等方面进行了探讨，获得了以下认识：(1)探讨了地质灾害监测分析的内涵，提出了地质灾害监测分析的定义，即围绕着监测目的、监测内容和监测方法，对地质灾害监测数据及相关成果资料开展综合性分析的工作，针对预警预报、防控决策、施工安全、工程效果等不同监测目的，总结了地质灾害监测分析的主要内容；(2)面对多源、异构、实时、海量的地质灾害监测及相关数据，发展地质灾害智能化监测分析系统，实现地质灾害监测数据、分析技术方法、应用服务以及监测分析工作流程化等方面有效集成，是破解监测分析困境和问题的关键。
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| 关 键 词： | 地质灾害 专业监测 数据分析 智能预警 三峡库区 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-04-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021-05-21 |
A landslide displacement prediction research based on optimization-parameter ARIMA model under the inducing factors |
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| Ye Runqing, Fu Xiaolin, Guo Fei, et al. 2023. Analysis and development of geo-hazards monitoring in Three Gorges Reservoir area[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 31(5): 1628-1636. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0190. |
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| Authors: | YE Runqing FU Xiaolin GUO Fei YI Qinglin TANG Minggao SONG Yingxu WU Runze |
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| Affiliation: | ①.Wuhan Center, China Geological Survey(Geosciences Innovation Center of Central South China), Wuhan 430205, China;②.Key Laboratory of Geological Hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area(China Three Gorges University), Ministry of Education, Yichang, 443002, China;③.State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China;④.Jiangxi Engineering Laboratory on Radioactive Geoscience and Big Data Technology, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper is based on the geological hazard monitoring, the early warning work, the monitoring data analysis and the information system construction examples of geological hazards in Three Gorges Reservoir area. It focuses on the concept and connotation of geological hazard monitoring data analysis, and the development trend of geological hazard monitoring data analysis. The main findings are as follows. (1)The definition of geological hazard monitoring data analysis is put forward. It is the comprehensive analysis of geological hazard monitoring data and related achievements and data according to the purposes, contents and methods of geological hazard monitoring. (2)In the face of multi-source, heterogeneous, real-time, massive geological hazard monitoring data, the development of intelligent geological hazard monitoring data analysis system is the key to solve the problem. The system can integrate the geological hazards monitoring big data, the various analytical techniques, methods and application service systems as well as the workflow of monitoring data analysis. |
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| Keywords: | Geological hazards Professional monitoring Monitoring data analysis Intelligent analysis system The Three Gorges Reservoir area |
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