近30 a新疆城市化与生态环境互动关系的动态计量分析

 以新疆为例,首先运用熵值法对1978—2009年间的城市化综合水平与生态环境综合质量进行测度与分析,然后利用协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解模型对两者之间的关系进行动态计量分析。研究发现,改革开放以来,新疆的城市化水平逐步提高,并以经济增长和土地非农化演进为主要特征,而生态环境综合质量及其分量指标则呈现出各自的变化特征。城市化水平与生态环境质量互为格兰杰因果关系,城市化综合水平指数是生态环境状态指数、生态环境响应指数的格兰杰原因。随着城市化水平的提升,生态环境综合质量指数和生态环境响应指数呈现先下降后不断上升的变化趋势。预测期内城市化对生态环境响应趋于低水平的稳定状态,现行的能源资源利用效率以及环保投资水平还没有起到有效改善生态环境质量的作用。从长期预测来看,城市化对生态环境的解释能力正在逐步提升,但是更应理性看待以城市化发展推动生态环境建设的措施。

Quantitative Analysis of the Dynamic Relationship Between Urbanization Level and Eco-environment Quantity in Xinjiang,China

There are complex relationships between urbanization and eco-environments in different regions and at different phases. This paper explores their interaction process during 1978-2009 in Xinjiang, China. We describe the comprehensive indexes of urbanization level and eco-environment quality by the Entropy Method, demonstrate causal relationships between comprehensive indexes of urbanization level and eco-environment quality with the co-integration test and Granger causality test, and analyze the dynamic process during 1978-2009 with impulse-response function and variance decomposition model. Results show that the urbanization level in Xinjiang had been gradually increasing since 1978 with economic growth and non-agriculture landscape expansion as its main features, but the comprehensive index of eco-environment quality and its components exhibited different change trends. There was a Granger causality relationship between the urbanization level and the eco-environment quality. The comprehensive index of urbanization level was Granger cause of eco-environment state index and eco-environment response index. With the increase of the urbanization level, the comprehensive index of eco-environment quality and the eco-environment response index decreased at first and then increased. Over the study period, the response of urbanization level to eco-environment quality presented a low and steady level, and the current energy resource utilization efficiency and the environment protection investment level didn't play an effective role in improving eco-environment quality. From a long-term, the explanatory power of urbanization level on eco-environment quality is gradually improved, but we should have a rational view of the eco-environment construction practices promoted by urbanization development.