山东省耕地资源安全问题研究

构建耕地资源安全概念模型,通过对人口资源压力极值状态下的耕地资源安全需求与可能供给之间的综合平衡,分析山东省耕地资源安全态势。2004年山东省耕地总量为754万hm2,预测2020年全省耕地资源的安全需求量为747万hm2,同期各种原因将减少耕地42.5万hm2,后备耕地潜力为50万hm2。理论上可保障耕地资源安全,但实践操作难度较大,据此提出保障山东省耕地资源安全的相应对策。

Study on Cultivated Land Resource Security in Shandong Province

With the increase in population and the development of economy,the conflict between human and land resources becomes more and more serious.Cultivated land resource security has been paid great attention in recent years.Based on the achievements of other researchers,this paper brought forward the concept model of cultivated land resource security,whose nature is the quantity security and quality security.The factors of ecological environment and social economic environment have had great impact on cultivated land resource security.In this paper,the condition of cultivated land resource security in Shandong Province was analyzed.The area of cultivated land in Shandong Province in 2004 is 7.54 million hm~2,and that in 2020 will be 7.47 million hm~2 by means of the statistical analysis.In this period it may decrease 0.425 million hm~2 for various reasons.But at the same time,the potential cultivated land will be 0.5 million hm~2.Therefore in theory it is easy to keep the cultivated land resource security,but it is very difficult in practice.This paper provides some corresponding countermeasures to fulfill the goal.