1996-2011 年南非人口空间分布格局与演变特征

南非是中国在非洲的最大投资目的地与经贸合作伙伴, 特别在基础设施建设方面发展迅速。南非人口空间分布研究对开展中南合作具有重要意义。本文通过收集整理南非历年来的全国人口普查资料统计数据, 运用空间自相关模型、不均衡指数、人口重心模型和偏移—分享模型, 分析了南非人口的空间分布格局和演变特征。研究结果表明, 南非人口分布具有显著的“东高西低”的空间格局, 呈现出以工业化程度较高的大都市区和港口城市为中心的“多核心”集聚的分布特征;空间自相关分析得出人口高集聚区主要分布在大都市区和沿海港口城市, 低密度集聚区主要集中分布在中西部地区;从变化趋势上来看, 1996-2011 年间人口分布不平衡趋势不断加强, 人口重心向西北方向移动;偏移—分享分析表明, 南非人口增长速度先后经历了从1996-2001 年快速增长到2001-2007 年缓慢增长, 再到2007-2011 年高速增长的“高—低—高”增长阶段;省域层面上看, 豪登省和西开普省一直是南非人口集聚较强地区。

Spatial pattern of population and its evolution in South Africa during 1996-2011

South Africa is China's largest trading partner and investment destination in Africa, especially in infrastructure construction. Study of the spatial distribution of South Africa's population is of great significance to the cooperation of the two countries. Based on the census data from 1996 to 2011, this paper describes the spatial pattern and evolving trend of the diverse population of South Africa with time series and cross section data between 1996 and 2011 at county level, based on population density analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, population gravity center model, shift-share analysis, and unbalanced index. Using the software platform of ArcGIS and OpenGeoDa, conclusions are made as follows. (1) Population density of South Africa has "high on east and low on west" features, and also has multicore clustering characteristics in metropolitan areas and port cities. (2) Population density varies significantly in different regions. Metropolitan areas and coastal port cities have high population densities, while central and western regions have low population densities. (3) In terms of trend in population change, population distribution in South Africa became more and more imbalanced from 1996 to 2011. The gravity center of population moves to the northwest of South Africa since 1996. (4) Shift-share analysis shows population growth rate have undergone "high-low-high" stages for the last 15 years. At provincial level, Gauteng andWestern Cape have been always the places with dense populations.