长江三角洲城市化效率与经济发展水平的耦合关系

本文利用DEA模型、层次分析法和耦合度模型分析了1980-2010 年长江三角洲16 个地级市的城市化效率、经济发展水平, 以及城市化效率与经济发展水平的耦合度, 并对其耦合关系进行了理论初探, 提出了概念模型。结果表明:① 30 年间, 长三角城市化效率与经济发展水平的耦合度总体经历了缓慢上升—急剧上升—缓慢下降—急剧下降的过程, 呈倒“U”型发展;② 不同发展阶段的经济发展水平和城市化效率耦合关系不同, 在一定时期, 提高城市化效率可以提升区域经济发展水平, 区域经济水平的发展也可提高城市化效率;但当城市化效率和经济发展达到一定的水平时, 城市化效率的提高不再成为提升区域经济发展水平的重要因素, 而区域经济发展水平的提升也不会过多地影响城市化效率;③ 城市化效率与经济发展水平存在动态耦合关系, 经济发展水平较高的城市会首先摆脱城市化效率带来的促进作用。

Coupling relationship between urbanization efficiency and economic development level in the Yangtze River Delta

This paper used the DEA model, analytic hierarchy process and a model for coupling degree to analyze urbanization efficiency, economic development level, and the coupling relationship between the two for the 16 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 1980 to 2010. As a result, theoretical exploration was conducted and a conceptual model was proposed. The results showed that: (1) During the 30 years of evolution, the economic development level in the Yangtze River Delta has been in a upward trend; regional development reached a balanced stage, and the coupling relationship between urbanization efficiency and economic development level exhibited an overall inverted "U": shaped pattern of "slow rise-sharp rise-slow decline-sharp decline". (2) In different developmental stages, economic development level had different relationship with urbanization efficiency. In a certain period of time, improvement of urbanization efficiency enhanced the regional economic development level, and vice versa. Once both reached a certain level, increase of urbanization efficiency is no longer an important factor to enhancement of the regional economic development level, and, again, vice versa. (3) There is a dynamic coupling relationship between urbanization efficiency and economic development level. Those cities with higher economic development level are the first to be independent of the effect of urbanization efficiency.