澜沧—耿马地震带大震47年复发周期及其科学意义

在前人研究的基础上，利用自相关函数方法分别对云南各主要地震带大震复发周期分别进行了系统计算，发现云南各地震区大震复发周期随着各自与板块缝合线的距离增是呈现规律性增加：澜沧－耿马地震带，因东、西两邻区大震复发周期分别为４６－４７年，故确认其大震复发周期为４７年。该４７年大震复发周期的确定，超越了本带历史地震记载缺乏、近３０年来地震活动高度平静、前人经验和前兆台网十分薄弱等难以逾越的障碍，对１９８８－

RECURRENCE PERIOD OF 47 YEARS AND ITS SCIENTIFIC SIGNIFICANCE IN LANCANG GENGMA SEISMIC FAULT

On the basis of forefathers'work,the recurrence periods in main seismic zones in Yunnan Province are systematically calculated by self correlation function method.It is discovered that the recurrence periods of large earthquakes seismic zones in Yunnan increase with the distances from the plate suture lines.The recurrence period of Lancang Gengma seismic zone is determined as 47years,due to recurrence periods of 46-47 years in the two neighbor regions.The determination of the 47 recurrence overcame the difficult blocks of lacking historical recordings,seismic quiescence in 30 years,forefathers'experiences and less dense precursory network.The author fairly predicted the seismic peak period,beginning of peak values and maximum accumulated strain energy in Lancang Gengma seismic zone in 1988-1995.Meanwhile,it plays significant function to reveal the natures of Lancang Gengma seismic zone.It also provides new scientific evidences for understanding seismogenic process and prediction of peak period.