冰川物质平衡模式及其对比研究——以祁连山黑河流域十一冰川研究为例

冰川物质平衡是冰川连结气候和水资源的纽带, 对其的观测和模拟始终是冰川与气候变化研究领域的重点和前缘之一. 以祁连山黑河流域十一冰川为参照冰川, 结合实测物质平衡验证资料, 建立了基于冰川表面能量平衡的冰川物质平衡模型(物理模型)和基于温度参数、温度-辐射参数和温度-辐射-水汽压参数的三种度日因子模型(统计模型), 并对模拟结果进行了分析及评估. 结果表明: 净辐射是冰川表面最主要的能量来源, 占能量收入的82.3%; 其次为感热供热, 占收入的17.7%. 净长波辐射基本为负, 吸收的热量主要通过融化和蒸发/升华方式消耗, 分别占能量支出的84.7%和15.3%. 加入净短波辐射和水汽压参数的度日因子-物质平衡模型的模拟效果提高显著, 相对误差为7%, 与能量平衡模型的模拟误差6.7%, 相差不大. 研究表明, 能量-物质平衡模型的物理意义明确, 模拟能力强大, 尤其在日尺度上有绝对的优势; 统计物质平衡模型在特定的地理条件和气候条件下表现出不佳, 对于一些极端值的模拟能力欠缺, 但是具有输入变量少, 计算简单的优点. 研究结果对黑河流域乃至整个祁连山地区的冰川物质平衡模拟方法的建立具有参考意义.

Physical energy-balance and statistical glacier melting models comparison and testing for Shiyi Glacier,Heihe River Basin,Qilian Mountains,China

Glacier mass balance is regarded as the bridge and tie between the meteorology and water resources in glaciated regions, so monitoring and simulating mass balance is always one of the frontier research topics. A physical energy-balance model and four statistical degree-day factor models based upon temperature-index, radiation-index and temperature-radiation-vapor-index are presented, in which the Shiyi Glacier is taken as a case of study. The results are deeply analyzed and evaluated. When the degree-day factor model is enhanced by net shortwave radiation index, resulting in 90% of the ablation rate, the model will be improved significantly. The enhanced day-degree factor model combining with shortwave radiation and water vapor becomes the best model amongst all models. The results of energy/mass balance models suggest that net radiation is the dominant energy source to the glacier surface, accounting for 82.3% of all the inward fluxes, followed by the sensible heat flux, accounting for 17.7%of all the inward fluxes. The long wave radiation is mostly negative one during the modeling period. The ablation energy and latent heat flux account for 84.7% and 15.3% of the heat loss. The relative error of the radiation-vapor day-degree model is 7%, which is slightly higher than that in energy-balance model, 6.7%. Comparison suggests that the energy-balance model is more capable of modeling the value and the amplitude of variation, especially in daily scale. Likewise the statistical models perform insufficiently, especially, to the local specific topography. However, the statistical models require few input data, with computational simplicity. This study will be useful for establishing glacier mass-balance model in the Heihe River Basin and the Qilian Mountains.