山东省发展轨迹比较与反思

根据时间序列性、空间敏感性、指标综合性和趋势可预测性原则,建立表征省级区域发展轨迹的数学模型,并模拟出山东省和浙江、江苏、辽宁、广东五省份1979~2003年发展轨迹及其发展度、协调度、持续度的演变轨迹。从时空比较研究的角度出发,首先在时间维度上分析了山东省三个发展阶段的内在特点,然后在空间维度上总结了山东省25年发展历程的6个特点。最后为山东省落实科学发展观,推进可持续发展提出了7条建议。

Comparison and Reflection of Development Track in Shandong Province

By the guide of the thought of scientific development and based on the principles of ordering in time,sensitivity in space,comprehensiveness of index and tendency of forecasting,the authors build a mathematics model to show the development track in province scale,and then simulate the development track and the developmental degree,the harmonious degree,the sustainable degree of Shandong,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Liaoning,Guangdong provinces from 1979 to 2003.From time and space aspects,firstly,the authors divided the 25 years into three phases: the slow-start phase,the rapid-growth phase and the adjust-development phase,the corresponding characteristics of each phase were given at the same time.Secondly,the authors summed up six characteristics of Shandong Province by comparing with four other provinces:(1) The population pressure was too heavy and the "reverse scale" effect was too visible.(2) The internal efficiency and external communication was little and its regional advantages did not play enough.(3) The economic efficiency was low and the government's macroeconomic regulation and control ability was too weak.(4) Social progress was slow and the difference between twon and country was too large.(5) Technology and education input was low and innovation capacity was too weak.(6) The energy efficiency was low and the energy comsumption grew quickly.Finally,the authors put forward seven suggestions to carry out the thought of scientific development and to promote sustainable development of Shandong Province:(1) Accelerate the space conformity to reestablish the space order structure.(2) Reduce the transaction cost to strengthen the interflow at home and abroad.(3) Strengthen the regulative dynamics to optimize the economic efficiency.(4) Accelerate the urbanization advancement to reduce the urban-rural difference.(5) Breakthrough the backward west region to realizes the common enrichment.(6) Increase the science and technology education investment to enhance the innovation power.(7) Enhance the production efficiency to safeguard the resources supply and demand.