扩散性危机影响下公众心理韧性空间特征初探

当前危机管理研究多从公共管理、社会学和心理学等角度揭示恐慌发生的规律,鲜有研究揭示其地理时空特征。因此,从地理学的视角出发,利用百度搜索指数,探索公众恐慌心理的基本空间结构和变动特征,并尝试捕捉心理韧性的空间影响因素。主要得到3点结论:①在当前互联网高度通达的背景下,危机信息传播速度极快,由此引发的恐慌情绪已无明显空间扩散过程,而是瞬时传播至全国范围,且未出现明显的信息盲区;②距危机发生地的距离显著影响公众心理韧性,随着距离的增加,公众面对危机的恐慌心理没有呈现出距离衰减的空间规律,也不完全符合"心理台风眼"假说,而是呈现出以疫情较严重的地区为多个中心的涟漪状起伏的圈层结构,恐慌波动指数(PR Index)在1.112～1.947变动;③公众恐慌心理对危机信息的韧性差异,受信息类型和空间距离交互影响,表现为紊流状的空间异质结构。建议未来危机信息管理需要重视政策措施的空间区划,根据与危机发生地的空间关系,来决定重点发布何种信息,从而最大效度地减少公众恐慌。

Exploring the Characters of Public Psychological Resilience Under Diffusive Crisis

The outbreak of COVID-19 in late 2019 causes grave losses to life and property of Chinese, and also lead to many public panics. How to reduce panic in the process of epidemic prevention is a major challenge for crisis management departments and the public. Current researches mostly reveal the mechanism from the perspective of public management, sociology and psychology, whereas the geographical perspective is absent. Such a theoretical gap cannot support the spatial management of crisis information under the macro scale. Therefore, this paper aims to reveal the spatial structure and changing characteristics of public panic psychology, as well as the regional differences and influencing factors of psychological resilience. This paper uses Baidu search index of keywords related to the COVID-19 during the epidemic period, which are divided into four categories according to whether they are the direct impact of the epidemic, and explores the spatial structure and variation characteristic of public panic psychology. In this paper, the average of the daily fluctuation of the search index, namely the average of the change degree of the search index, was finally adopted, which is called the PR (Panic Ripple) index, to measure the panic degree of the people in all provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions). Secondly, in this paper, the linear distance of each province from the crisis core area is taken as the x-coordinate, and the PR index is taken as the y-coordinate to make a scatter plot, and then Matlab software is used to conduct smooth spline fitting so as to obtain the spatial influencing factors of mental resilience. The research findings are: 1) with highly accessible Internet, crisis information spreads so fast that there is no obvious spatial diffusion process, but is simultaneously spreading to the whole country. There is no obvious information blind spot; 2) With the increase of distance, the public’s panic psychology does not show the spatial law of distance decrease or increase, nor does it fully follow the “psychological typhoon eye” hypothesis. Instead, it presents a ripple and undulating circle structure with severe epidemic situation, like Wuhan as the center, and the resilience index fluctuates between 1.112 and 1.947; 3) The resilience of public panic psychology to crisis information is varied according to different types of information and spatial distance. This incurs a spatial turbulence effect that results in a heterogenous spatial structure of the panic. This study reveals the basic spatial structure of psychological resilience under diffusive crisis from a geographical perspective. The advice given in this paper is that future crisis management should pay crucial attention to spatial zoning when implementing relevant policies according to the spatial relationship with the crisis core area, so as to minimize the validity of public panic.