1987—2016年全球陆地气候气象及水文类灾害直接经济损失时空特征及贡献率分析

基于EM-DAT数据库1987—2016年全球陆地气候气象及水文类(气候相关类)灾害灾情数据及居民消费者价格指数(CPI)、GDP等社会资料数据,对直接经济损失、损失占比(直接经济损失/GDP)等在不同尺度上计算分析,并量化了频次、GDP、频次与GDP联合影响对损失占比变化的贡献率。结果表明:①全球直接经济损失随时间变化呈显著上升趋势,损失占比先上升后下降,世界防灾减灾能力不断加强,但应对巨灾能力仍然较弱;②收入水平越高区域遭受直接经济损失越严重,但中低和中高收入区域经济损失占比明显高于低收入和高收入区域;③直接经济损失严重地区有欧洲、东亚、南亚、东南亚及北美洲中南部地区,而损失占比较高地区主要有东亚、东南亚和加勒比海地区;④初期灾次对气候气象及水文类灾害损失占比变化起主导作用但影响力逐渐减弱,GDP和频次与GDP联合影响对损失占比变化作用逐渐增强,不同收入区域存在一定差异。

Spatial-temporal Patterns and Influencing Factor Contributions of Direct Economic Loss from Climatological-Meteorological-Hydrological Hazards in the World in 1987-2016

With the development of society and the growth of population, the impact of global climate change on human society is increasing rapidly and some countries and regions may suffer more climate-related hazards, which include climatological hazards (drought, glacial lake outburst and wildfire), meteorological hazards (extreme temperature, fog and storm) and hydrological hazards (flood, landslide and wave action). These hazards happened more frequently as time went by, and the direct economic losses had also increased, posing many challenges to the development of security and human. Direct economic loss is the most direct and concentrated manifestation of hazards in terms of impact, whose absolute and relative values are the key indicators for characterizing the hazards and disasters. Systematic study of the spatial-temporal patterns and influencing factor contributions of direct economic loss from climatological-meteorological-hydrological hazards in the world can help us master the development rules of hazards, the ability to respond disasters in different income regions and the contributions of different factors to disaster loss to provide a certain reference for disaster prevention and mitigation, and they’re also important for planning and sustainable development in different countries and regions. Based on the global climatological-meteorological-hydrological hazards and disaster data in EM-DAT from 1987 to 2016 and social data such as Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the direct economic loss and loss ratio (direct economic loss/GDP) of the hazards were calculated and analyzed on different spatial-temporal scales respectively, the contribution rate of frequency of hazards and disasters, GDP and their coupling effects to disaster loss ratio were analyzed as well. The results showed that: 1) The total direct economic loss of the disasters showed a significant upward trend over time, while the loss ratio of the disasters went up and then went down. The ability of the whole world to prevent and mitigate disasters had been strengthened, but its ability to cope with catastrophe was still weak. 2) The higher income area suffered more serious direct economic loss of disasters, while the economic disaster loss ratio in lower middle and upper middle income areas were significantly higher than the loss ratio in low income and high income areas. 3) The areas with severe losses of the hazards included Europe, South Asia, Southeast Asia, East Asia and the south-central region of North America, while the areas with high loss ratio of the disaster included Southeast Asia, East Asia and the Caribbean. 4) Frequency of the hazards and disasters played a leading role in the loss ratio of climate-related disasters in the preliminary stage, and its contribution had a downward trend; while the GDP and the coupling effects dominated in the later with an increasing impact in the changing of loss ratio, and there are some differences in different income regions.