基于势能联系模型的区域潜在经济关系研究

在区域一体化背景下，基于资金流通、产业发展、劳动力供给和交通信息4个维度构建指标体系，运用势能联系模型测度2007―2017年长三角潜在经济关系，并从空间格局和网络特征双重视角对测度结果进行深度分析。主要得出如下结论：① 长三角潜在经济关系上升态势明显，空间上表现为典型的“三圈层”结构特征；② 潜在经济关系总体上呈现极化趋势，上海与其他3省域潜在经济关系的基尼系数下降明显，但苏浙皖之间的基尼系数仍在上升；③ 潜在经济关系的点度中心性和中介中心性均呈上升态势，潜在经济关系网络表现为明显的4类凝聚子群结构；④ 长三角经济合作潜力格局呈现空间马太效应，少数城市表现出异质性特征。根据研究结论提出政策建议：优化长三角空间一体化格局，权衡区内与区外经济联系，强化合作潜力大的城市之间的经济联系，完善一体化运行的体制机制。

Regional Potential Economic Relations Based on the Potential Energy Connection Model: Empirical Analysis of 26 Cities in Yangtze River Delta

With the regional integration of the Yangtze River Delta becoming a national strategy, scientific understanding of the potential economic relations and cooperation potential among the core cities in the Yangtze River Delta has become an important theory and contemporary issue. First of all, the paper analyzes the main forming process and driving factors of potential economic relations from two aspects of external environment and internal power. It holds that globalization, localization and informatization promote the formation and evolution of potential economic relations, and explains that competition and cooperation are the key elements to measure potential economic relations from the perspective of mechanism. Then, based on the four dimensions of capital circulation, industrial development, labor supply and traffic information, the index system is constructed. The potential energy connection model is used to calculate the intensity of potential economic relations in the Yangtze River Delta from 2007 to 2017, and the measurement results are analyzed and mined in depth. The main research conclusions are as follows: 1) From 2007 to 2017, the potential economic relations of the Yangtze River Delta have been on the rise significantly, showing a prominent “three-layer” pattern in space, and this pattern presents a strong spatial stability. 2) The potential economic relations in the Yangtze River Delta generally showed a spatial polarization trend. The Gini coefficient of potential economic relations between Shanghai and the other three provinces decreased significantly, but the Gini coefficient among the three provinces of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui still showed an upward trend. 3) The degree centrality and intermediate centrality of potential economic relations in the Yangtze River Delta both have risen during 2007-2017, and the distribution of intermediate centrality became more concentrated. The potential economic relations network shows four types of cohesive subgroup structure. 4) The potential economic relations in the Yangtze River Delta show the Matthew effect of ‘the strong always strong’ in space, and the heterogeneity of a few cities is obvious, which deserves further attention. Finally, based on the conclusions of the study, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions: optimizing the spatial pattern of “one strong and multi-polar”, weighing the development relations between cities within and outside, strengthening the economic association between cities according to the cooperation potential, and further improving the mechanism of regional integration operation.