1957~2016年中国农业界限温度时空变化研究

利用中国830个气象站点1957~2016年地面气象观测资料,采用五日滑动平均法和GIS方法确定了近60 a农业界限温度（0℃、5℃、10℃）的初终日期和持续日数,并比较分析1957~1986年和1987~2016年2个时段的≥0℃、≥5℃和≥10℃农业界限温度的初终日期和持续日数的变化情况。结果表明：与1957~1986年相比,1987~2016年中国农业界限温度（0℃、5℃、10℃）的总体变化规律基本一致,即初日提前、终日推迟、持续日数增加,各地区变化幅度不同,东北、华北和青藏高原地区变化幅度最大。中国各界限温度的终日变化幅度均较小,初日和持续日数变化较大。≥0℃初日在东北北部和青藏高原地区分别提前3~9 d和3~15 d,持续日数在东北和华北部分地区分别增加3~15 d和2~18 d,青藏高原部分地区增加4~16 d;≥5℃初日在东北和华中地区分别提前4~9 d和6~13 d,持续日数在东北、华北部分地区分别增加4~13 d和2~14 d,青藏高原地区增加2~23 d;≥10℃初日在东北和青藏高原地区分别提前2~9 d和2~13 d,持续日数在东北和青藏高原地区变化最为显著,分别增加3~15 d和5~25 d。农业界限温度的初终日期和持续日数变化,使作物生育期延长和种植界线北移。

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Agricultural Threshold Temperature from 1957 to 2016

Based on the surface meteorological observation data of 830 meteorological stations nationwide from 1957 to 2016, the initial and final dates and duration days of agricultural boundary temperatures (0℃, 5℃ and 10℃) in the past 60 years were determined by using five-day moving average method and GIS method. The changes of initial and final dates and duration days of agricultural boundary temperatures ≥0℃,≥5℃ and ≥10℃ in 1957-1986 and 1987-2016 were compared and analyzed. The results show that, compared with the period 1957-1986, the general change rule of the agricultural threshold temperature (0℃, 5℃ and 10℃) in China during 1987-2016 is basically the same, that is, the early day, the initial date is ahead of schedule, the final date is delayed, and the duration days continues to increase, the change range of each region is different, and the change range of Northeast, North China and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the largest.The national agricultural boundary temperature has a smaller change in the final date. The initial date of ≥0℃ is 3-9 d and 3-15 d ahead of time in the north of Northeast China and Qinghai Tibet Plateau, The duration days increased by 3-15 d and 2-18 d in Northeast and North China, respectively, and increased by 4-16 d in some parts of Qinghai Tibet Plateau; the initial date of ≥5℃ is 4-9 d and 6-13 d earlier in Northeast China and central China, the duration days is 4-13d and 2-14 d ahead of time in Northeast China and parts of North China, and 2-23 d ahead of time in Qinghai Tibet Plateau. The first day of ≥10℃ is 2-9 d earlier and 2-13 d earlier in Northeast China and Qinghai Tibet Plateau respectively, and the duration days was the most significant in Northeast China and Qinghai Tibet Plateau, increasing by 3-15 d and 5-25 d respectively. The change of initial and final date and duration days of agricultural threshold temperature makes the crop growth period prolonged and the planting boundary moved northward.