美国出口管制下中国外贸风险的省域地理差异

从总贸易、出口、进口、外资和人员5个视角构建对美风险系数,测度和比较各省区市对美外贸风险的地理差异。结果表明:上海、浙江和福建与美国的进出口贸易规模最大,对美国市场的依赖程度最高,面临的综合外贸风险最大;河南尤其需要防范对美国的出口风险;海南、新疆、天津和西藏等需要加强从美国进口的风险管理;重庆除了需要防范对美出口风险外,还因为实际利用美资最多且依赖程度最大,亟需加强外资风险管理。宁夏和山西虽然从美国的引资规模不大,但是对美资的依赖程度最高,亟需提升外资多元化水平。从人员跨境流动风险来看,上海、北京和浙江面临的风险最大。中国各省区市在应对美国出口管制时应该加强外贸风险的识别和管理,针对不同的风险采取差别化的防范和化解措施。

Chinese Provincial Geographical Differences of Foreign Trade Risks Arisen from U.S.A Export Control

U.S.A has implemented export control on high and new technology against China for many years. The ZTE and Huawei incidents indicated that Chinese transnational companies have to seriously and urgently consider the overseas business risks because of America export control. The tariffs imposed on Chinese products exporting to U.S. market damaged and distorted the production and operation of Chinese export-oriented enterprises, increased foreign trade operation and administration risks of Chinese transnational firms. This paper divides the risks caused by US export control policy into direct risks and indirect risks. The former include the risks of technology absorption, technology trade and enterprise’s breach-law activities according to the U.S. export control policies, the latter refers to the chain effects and side effects caused by export control, which include risks of cooperation opportunities loss and reduction with the other countries, trade loss or decreasing in related products, and the entrance barrier risk of Chinese products to American market. In order to evaluate foreign trade risks, this paper constructed the coefficients of overall foreign trade risk, export risk, import risk, investment risk and personnel risk, and selected the 2017 statistical data of 34 provinces and cities in China, including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, to measure and compare the geographical differences of foreign trade risks among Chinese provinces and cities which suffer from the United States export control policies. The results are as follows: 1) From the perspective of total trade risk, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Fujian not only have a large scale of import and export trade with the United States, but also have a high degree of dependence on the U.S. market, thus bear the highest foreign trade risks. 2) From the perspective of export risk, Henan and Chongqing bear the highest export risks from the United States, and both provinces are overly dependent on the U.S. market. 3) From the perspective of import risk, Hainan, Xinjiang, Tianjin and Tibet heavily depended on the import of American products, therefore have an urgent need to identify and prevent the import risks of related high-technology products. 4) From the perspective of the risk of foreign investment, Chongqing not only absorbed the most amount of American capital, but also heavily relied on American capital, so it faces the highest risks of foreign investment. Although Ningxia and Shanxi got a small scale of investment from the United States, they heavily relied on American capital. 5) From the perspective of personnel risk, when export control policies affect the entry and exit of high technology and strategic trade personnel, Shanghai, Beijing and Zhejiang inevitably face greater personnel risk than other provinces and municipalities. In order to cope with the export control policy of the United States, Chinese provinces and municipalities should improve the identification of business risks and strengthen management of foreign trade risks arising from the American export control policies, and adopt differentiated prevention and resolution measures to deal with different risks.