基于F-D曲线法的中国大陆地区地震灾害经济可接受风险研究

合理的地震灾害经济可接受风险水平可以有效管理防灾减灾的投入。基于1991～2020年中国大陆地区地震灾害经济损失数据，利用F-D曲线法(Frequency-Damage curve),建立不同震级(M_S<5.0、M_S5.0～5.9、M_S6.0～6.9和M_S≥7.0)和不同灾情等级(微灾、小灾、中灾、大灾和巨灾)的地震灾害经济可接受风险曲线，并以此为标准讨论30年间由地震产生直接经济损失事件的可接受风险等级。研究结果表明：中国大陆地区地震灾害造成0.020亿元直接经济损失的灾损率不超过1.29×10^-2/a为可接受经济风险，直接经济损失超过14.763亿元其灾损率为任意值均是不可接受经济风险。由此判断，30年间有18.07%的地震灾害属于不可接受经济风险事件。同理，不同震级和不同灾情等级地震灾害的可接受经济风险水平也被确定，并得到M_S<5.0、M_S5.0～5.9、M_S6.0～6.9和M_S

Economic acceptable risk of earthquake disasters in Chinese Mainland based on F-D curve method

Reasonable economic acceptable risk level of earthquake disaster can effectively manage the investment of disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the economic loss data of earthquake disasters in mainland China from 1991 to 2020, the F-D curve method(Frequency-Damage curve)is used to establish the economic acceptable risk curve of earthquake disasters with different magnitudes(M_S <5.0, M_S 5.0～5.9, M_S 6.0～6.9 and M_S ≥7.0)and different disaster levels(micro-disaster, small-disaster, medium-disaster, large-disaster and catastrophe). And on this standard, the acceptable risk level of direct economic loss events caused by earthquakes in 30 years is discussed. The results show that the direct economic loss of 0.002 billion yuan caused by earthquake disasters in mainland China is acceptable if the damage rate does not exceed 1.29×10^-2/a, direct economic loss of more than 1.4763 billion yuan of its damage rate for any value is unacceptable economic risk. It can be judged that 18.07% of the earthquake disasters in 30 years are unacceptable economic risk events. Similarly, the acceptable economic risk level of earthquake disasters with different magnitudes and different disaster levels was also determined. It was found that 23.91%, 27.45%, 34.78% and 30.77% of the events with M_S <5.0, M_S 5.0～5.9, M_S 6.0～6.9 and M_S ≥7.0 earthquake disasters were unacceptable economic risks respectively, and 56.00%, 48.62%, 41.73%, 40.00% and 44.44% of the events with micro-earthquake, small-earthquake, medium-earthquake, large-earthquake and catastrophe earthquake disasters were unacceptable economic risks respectively. The research results can provide relevant theoretical and practical support for the prevention of economic risk of earthquake disasters in China.