4种再分析气温资料在羌塘国家级自然保护区的适用性研究

利用1979 - 2018年羌塘国家级自然保护区边缘的3个气象站点狮泉河（西部）、 申扎（中部）和安多（东部）的观测气温（OT）， 与ERA-Interim（ET）、 NCEP/NCAR（NT1）、 NCEP/DOE（NT2）和JRA-55（JT）4种再分析气温资料， 从年际变化和年变化两方面采用多年气温变化趋势、 均方差、 相关性等参数方法在羌塘自然保护区进行了适用性研究。结果表明： 从多年平均气温年际变化来看， 4种再分析资料在狮泉河（西部）的适用性较差， JRA-55资料在安多（东部）和申扎（中部）的适用性较好， 且冬季再分析气温资料与观测气温的相关性好于夏季； 从多年平均气温年变化来看， 均表现为冬季（1月或12月）最低， 夏季（7月或8月）最高的“单峰型”变化。综合来看， JRA-55资料在羌塘自然保护区的适用性较好， ERA-Interim对多年气温趋势变化表现不准确， NCEP/NCAR和NCEP/DOE与观测气温相比显著偏低。

Applicability of the four reanalysis temperature data in Chang Tang Nature Reserve

Using the observation temperature （OT） in Shiquanhe （west）， Shenzha （middle part） and Anduo （east） in the edge of the Chang Tang Nature Reserve from 1979 to 2018， together with the ERA-Interim （ET）， NCEP/NCAR （NT1）， NCEP/DOE（NT2） and JRA-55（JT） reanalyzed temperature data， an applicability study was carried out from two aspects of annual and monthly mean variations using the parameters， such as perennial temperature variation， mean square deviation and correlation. The results show that from the perspective of annual and monthly variations， the four kinds of reanalysis data have poor applicability in Shiquanhe （west）， and JRA-55 data have good applicability in Anduo （east） and Shenzha （middle）； the correlation between the reanalysis temperature data and the observed temperature in winter is better than that in summer. In terms of monthly mean temperature， one can see a minimum in winter （January or December） and a maximum in summer （July or August）. On the whole， the JRA-55 data has a good applicability in Chang Tang Nature Reserve. According to the studies on the annual temperature change and monthly temperature change， JRA-55 has the best correlation with the observed temperature， while ERA-Interim temperature trend is not accurate and NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/DOE are significantly lower.