城市增长与收缩的演变过程及其影响因素

中国快速城镇化过程中已经出现了城市增长与收缩并存的现象，其中收缩型城市中又以资源型城市较为典型。研究城市增长与收缩过程及其影响因素有助于优化资源型城市发展路径以及制定合理的规划策略。本研究以黑龙江省鸡西市、鹤岗市、双鸭山市、七台河市为研究案例，从城市比较研究的思路入手，利用均方差决策法、偏最小二乘法等方法定量化表征4市城市增长与收缩过程并分析其影响因素。结果表明：① 4市并不是处于持续收缩的状态，而是增长与收缩交替进行。② 从城市增长与收缩过程的影响因素方面看，鸡西市主要受居民收入与消费情况影响，鹤岗市主要受产业及投资影响，双鸭山市主要受制造业和外部投资影响，七台河市主要受煤炭产量影响。③ 从差异性角度分析，城市增长与收缩过程以及影响因素的差异主要由替代产业选择差异、城市间竞争、外部性影响所决定。

Process and Factors of Urban Growth and Shrinkage: A Case Study of Mining Cities in Heilongjiang Province

In the process of rapid urbanization in China, there has been the coexistence of urban growth and shrinkage, among which resource-based cities are more typical. The research on the process and influence mechanism of urban growth and shrinkage is helpful to optimize the development path of resource-based cities and the appropriate planning response. In this paper, we take Jixi City, Hegang City, Shuangyashan City and Qitaihe City in Heilongjiang Province as case cities. From the idea of urban comparative study, the process of urban growth and shrinkage of the four cities is quantitatively characterized and its factors are analyzed by means of mean square decision-making method and partial least square method. The advantage of using mean square decision-making is to avoid errors of subjective evaluation. The partial least square method has gathered the advantages of PCA, correlation analysis and MLR method. The aim to use PLS here is to solve the multicollinearity problem of variables. The results show that: 1) The four cities are not in a state of continuous shrinkage, but the growth and shrinkage alternately. This result is in line with the characteristic that the development of mining cities change with the mining market. 2) From the perspective of factors of urban growth and shrinkage process, Jixi City is mainly affected by residents’ income and consumption, Hegang City is mainly affected by industry and investment, Shuangyashan City is mainly affected by the manufacturing industry and investment, and Qitaihe City is mainly affected by coal production. The four cities have different influential factors mainly in aspects of social development, external investment, and industrial transformation. In addition, each factors has different influencing extend on different cities. Therefore, we will see that cities with similar resource endowment could have different influential factors on urban growth or shrinkage. 3) From the perspective of difference, the process of urban growth and shrinkage and the difference of influence mechanism are mainly determined by the difference of alternative industry selection, the competition between cities, and the external influence and other factors.